The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.1 per cent as the economic fallout from the Middle East war continues.
The revision was announced at the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., where officials warned that war-related energy and supply shocks are undercutting recovery across the region.
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the downgrade reflects broader pressures facing energy-importing countries.
“On Sub-Saharan Africa, we are seeing some downgrade of growth, and we are seeing some uptick in inflation in a number of countries in the region,” Gourinchas noted.
“The impact is very much along the lines of what we see more broadly — for a lot of the countries, especially the ones that are energy importers.”
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He added that the Fund is “following with a number of countries what their needs may be in the current environment” and coordinating with the International Energy Agency and the World Bank on energy market disruptions.
Speaking further, the Chief of the IMF Research Department’s World Economic Studies Division, Denz Igan, said the 0.3 percentage point cut reflects competing pressures.
“War-related higher fuel and fertilizer prices and higher shipping costs are going to weigh on non-oil activity in Nigeria,” Igan said. “There’s some offset coming from higher oil prices, but the net balance is weaker growth in 2026, with some recovery built in for 2027.”
The Fund projects that median inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa will rise from 3.4% in 2025 to 5% in 2026, driven by high oil and fertilizer prices, potential fuel shortages, and rising costs.
For Nigeria, she said tight monetary policy will be “crucial to achieve the inflation target of the central bank.”
The IMF noted that bilateral aid to Sub-Saharan Africa has fallen by 16% to 20% in 2025, removing a key buffer just as commodity and shipping costs spike.
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